Russia’s defense industry has been the subject of intense scrutiny in recent months, with reports suggesting serious challenges in production, leadership changes, and the impact of ongoing Western sanctions. However, a deeper look into the sector reveals a more complex and nuanced picture. While some aspects of the industry appear to be struggling, other areas—particularly military production—are experiencing remarkable growth, outpacing even Western nations in key categories.

Leadership Upheavals and Structural Challenges

One of the key indicators of trouble within Russia’s defense sector is the recent wave of leadership dismissals at major defense and aerospace organizations. The most notable of these was the removal of Yuri Borisov as the General Director of Roscosmos, Russia’s state space agency. Borisov’s departure follows the earlier dismissal of Yuri Slyusar, the head of United Aircraft-Building Corporation (OAK), which is responsible for producing Russia’s military and civilian aircraft.

The leadership shakeups are seen as a response to ongoing failures in meeting production targets. In 2024, Russia planned to manufacture 40 new commercial airliners, but only managed to deliver three. This significant shortfall raises concerns about the country’s ability to sustain a viable civilian aviation industry, especially after Western aircraft manufacturers, such as Boeing and Airbus, halted deliveries to Russian airlines following the invasion of Ukraine.

Adding to these concerns, Russia’s commercial aviation sector is experiencing declining passenger numbers and an increase in air safety incidents. With limited access to Western-made spare parts, Russian airlines have resorted to cannibalizing older aircraft to keep their fleets operational, increasing maintenance risks. The setbacks in civilian aerospace manufacturing mirror broader challenges facing the country’s defense industry, which relies heavily on advanced components that are now harder to acquire due to sanctions.

Sanctions and Supply Chain Disruptions

The impact of Western sanctions on Russia’s defense industry cannot be understated. The United States and European nations have imposed stringent restrictions on the sale of high-tech components, including microchips, avionics, and precision manufacturing tools. As a result, many Russian defense manufacturers are struggling to source critical parts needed for modern weapon systems.

For example, the production of advanced fighter jets such as the Su-57 Felon has been hindered by difficulties in securing electronic components. Similarly, tank production initially faced setbacks due to a lack of key components, forcing Russian manufacturers to rely on older stockpiles of Soviet-era equipment to maintain battlefield supply.

However, while these constraints have slowed certain aspects of Russia’s military production, they have not crippled it entirely. On the contrary, Russian arms manufacturers have adapted in several ways:

1. Black Market and Alternative Suppliers: Reports indicate that Russia has successfully acquired restricted components through third-party countries, including China, Iran, and North Korea. This has helped sustain critical weapons production.
2. Domestic Substitutes: While not as advanced as Western technology, Russia has made efforts to develop indigenous alternatives to sanctioned components, particularly in the field of avionics and missile guidance systems.
3. Increased State Investment: The Kremlin has injected significant financial resources into defense production, providing subsidies and incentives for manufacturers to ramp up production despite logistical challenges.

Military Production: Surpassing Pre-War Levels

Contrary to reports of a collapsing defense industry, some sectors of Russian military production are actually thriving. Over the past two years, Russia has rapidly expanded its output of tanks, artillery, missiles, and ammunition, surpassing even the combined efforts of NATO countries.

Ammunition Production: Outpacing the West

One of the most surprising developments is Russia’s ability to produce more ammunition than all NATO countries combined. Estimates suggest that Russia is manufacturing ammunition at a rate seven times higher than that of Western nations. This includes everything from artillery shells to precision-guided missiles, allowing Russia to sustain its war effort despite facing an adversary supported by Western military aid.

Tank and Artillery Expansion

Before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia produced around 200 tanks per year. Today, that number has doubled, with production reaching over 400 new tanks annually. Additionally, Russia has managed to triple the production of artillery systems and rocket launchers, a crucial factor in the ongoing war of attrition in Ukraine.

Some of this increase has come from modernization efforts, where older Soviet-era tanks are upgraded with new armor and electronics. While not as advanced as NATO’s latest tank models, Russia’s strategy relies on overwhelming numbers rather than technological superiority.

Missile Production and Drone Warfare

Another area of significant expansion is missile and drone production. Russian manufacturers have adapted to the demands of modern warfare, increasing the output of:

• Hypersonic missiles, such as the Kinzhal, which can evade traditional missile defense systems.
• Long-range cruise missiles, used in precision strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure.
• Kamikaze drones, which have become a key element in both offensive and defensive operations.

Russia has also benefited from Iranian and Chinese technological support, allowing it to refine its drone designs and manufacturing processes. These advancements have given Russia a strategic edge on the battlefield, despite continued Western attempts to restrict access to key components.

The Future of Russia’s Defense Industry: Strengths and Weaknesses

While reports of Russia’s defense industry falling apart are not entirely unfounded, they only tell part of the story. The sector faces serious structural challenges, including leadership instability, technological limitations, and ongoing sanctions pressure. However, at the same time, Russia has managed to adapt and, in some areas, expand its military production capabilities beyond pre-war levels.

The key question moving forward is whether Russia can sustain this momentum. Several factors will play a decisive role:

1. Economic Sustainability: Can Russia continue pouring money into defense production while facing a shrinking economy and increased wartime spending?
2. Sanctions Effectiveness: Will Western countries tighten sanctions enforcement, making it harder for Russia to acquire restricted technology?
3. Innovation vs. Mass Production: Can Russia improve the quality of its military equipment, or will it rely on sheer numbers to offset technological gaps?
4. Human Capital and Workforce Limitations: As more skilled engineers and workers leave the country or are drafted into military service, can Russia maintain a sustainable workforce for long-term defense production?

Ultimately, Russia’s defense industry is not collapsing—but it is transforming. Whether this transformation will be enough to sustain a prolonged war effort remains to be seen. One thing is clear: underestimating Russia’s ability to adapt could be a costly mistake for its adversaries.

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