Why European Leaders Are Sounding the Alarm Over War with Russia
December 26, 2025
In late 2025, a wave of stark warnings from NATO leaders and European officials has heightened tensions across the continent, painting a picture of potential direct confrontation with Russia within the next few years. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, in a December speech in Berlin, declared that “we are Russia’s next target” and cautioned that Moscow could be ready to use military force against the alliance within five years. He urged allies to prepare for a conflict on the scale endured by previous generations, emphasizing the need for rapid increases in defense spending and production.
Rutte’s alarm was echoed by others. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius suggested that some analysts believe Europe may have already experienced its “last summer of peace” in 2025, with Russia potentially capable of attacking a NATO member by 2028 or sooner. Intelligence assessments from Denmark and statements from military leaders in Germany and Poland have similarly forecasted risks of Russian aggression against NATO in the coming 3–10 years.
These warnings are rooted in intelligence evaluations portraying Russia as viewing itself in an existential struggle with the West. Despite sustaining over 1 million casualties in Ukraine since 2022—including an estimated 1,200 troops lost daily in 2025—Russia has shifted its economy to a wartime footing. In 2025 alone, Moscow produced around 2,000 land-attack missiles and thousands of armored vehicles, bolstered by partnerships with countries like China to evade sanctions.
Russia has also escalated hybrid threats against NATO members, including sabotage, cyberattacks, GPS jamming in the Baltics, and repeated airspace incursions by drones and aircraft. Leaders argue that credible deterrence demands urgency: European defenses, long underfunded, must ramp up to meet NATO’s new target of 5% of GDP on defense and security-related spending by 2035 (with at least 3.5% on core military needs), agreed at the alliance’s Hague Summit earlier this year.
Critics point out divisions in expert opinions. Some assessments indicate Russia would require 5–10 years after the Ukraine conflict to seriously threaten NATO, and its performance in Ukraine has exposed military limitations. U.S. officials have been more restrained, emphasizing Europe’s conventional superiority over Russia (outside nuclear capabilities) and prioritizing diplomacy.
The Kremlin dismisses these warnings as provocative hysteria. President Vladimir Putin and officials like Dmitry Peskov deny plans to attack NATO while asserting readiness if provoked, accusing the alliance of aggression through eastward expansion.
Meanwhile, Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds on amid stalled peace efforts. U.S.-brokered talks have produced a 20-point proposal from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, offering concessions like potential demilitarized zones in Donbas, but Russia shows little flexibility, insisting on maximalist demands. Russian forces claimed over 5,000 square kilometers seized in 2025, at immense human cost.
Ultimately, these European warnings appear aimed at galvanizing defense preparations amid Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine, perceived imperial ambitions, and hybrid assaults—rather than signaling imminent war. As peace negotiations continue in a stalemate, the continent braces for an uncertain future.
About The Author
