In December 2025, two significant developments in U.S. foreign policy—the approval of a $686 million upgrade package for Pakistan’s F-16 fighter jets and the launch of the Pax Silica initiative—have underscored India’s evolving position in the second Trump administration’s global strategy. These moves reflect a pragmatic, transactional approach that prioritizes American interests, countering China, and leveraging partnerships, often at the expense of unqualified favoritism toward New Delhi.

The F-16 Upgrade: A Signal of Balanced Leverage in South Asia

The Trump administration notified Congress in early December 2025 of a proposed $686 million Foreign Military Sales package to modernize Pakistan’s existing F-16 fleet. The deal, cleared after a 30-day review period without objections, includes advanced avionics, Link-16 tactical data links for real-time battlefield interoperability, cryptographic equipment, training, and logistical support. Lockheed Martin serves as the primary contractor, with upgrades aimed at extending the jets’ operational life through 2040 while addressing flight safety concerns.

U.S. officials justified the sale as supporting counterterrorism cooperation and interoperability with American forces, explicitly stating it “will not alter the basic military balance in the region.” However, the timing has raised eyebrows in India, coming amid ongoing U.S. pressure on New Delhi for trade concessions and increased purchases of American defense equipment. Analysts view it as a revival of U.S.-Pakistan security ties, signaling that Washington is willing to balance relations with both South Asian rivals to extract maximum benefits—rewarding Pakistan for cooperation while using it as leverage in negotiations with India.

This contrasts with the Biden era’s stronger tilt toward India and echoes Trump’s first-term pragmatic style, where personal rapport with leaders like Narendra Modi gave way to hard-nosed deal-making.

Pax Silica: An Exclusive Club for Trusted Tech Partners

On December 12, 2025, the U.S. launched Pax Silica (“Peace Through Silicon”), a strategic coalition to secure supply chains critical to artificial intelligence and advanced technologies. The initiative focuses on critical minerals, energy inputs, semiconductors, AI infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, and logistics, explicitly aimed at reducing dependencies on China and fostering a “trusted” ecosystem among aligned nations.

Founding signatories of the Pax Silica Declaration include the U.S., Japan, South Korea, Australia, Singapore, and Israel. The inaugural summit in Washington also involved the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, Canada, and the European Union as participants or observers. Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Jacob Helberg emphasized the group’s focus on countries with proven technological leadership and policy alignment in export controls and investment screening.

India’s conspicuous absence—despite the inclusion of other Quad partners like Japan and Australia—highlights Washington’s assessment that New Delhi, while a strategic counterweight to China, lacks the immediate capabilities or full alignment needed for this high-trust core group. Factors include India’s emerging but not yet leading semiconductor ecosystem, ongoing trade frictions (such as U.S. tariffs related to Indian energy purchases), and perceptions of strategic autonomy that may not fully mesh with the coalition’s tight coordination.

Lessons for India in Trump’s Transactional Worldview

These twin developments paint a clear picture of India’s place in Trump’s “America First” doctrine: a valued partner with significant potential in the Indo-Pacific, but one subject to pressure and conditional engagement rather than automatic privilege.

• Transactional Realism Over Ideology: Trump views alliances through deals and leverage. Arming Pakistan and excluding India from elite tech forums serve as tools to push New Delhi toward concessions on trade, defense purchases, and closer alignment on issues like reducing ties with Russia.
• No Exemptions for Strategic Autonomy: India’s multi-alignment approach invites costs, as seen in penalties for not fully aligning with U.S.-led orders on energy and technology.
• Economic Security as National Security: Pax Silica securitizes tech supply chains, reserving core access for “proven” contributors. India’s exclusion underscores the need for accelerated self-reliance in semiconductors and critical technologies.
• Shift from Personal Rapport: The warmer Modi-Trump dynamic of the first term has cooled into a more leverage-based relationship, influenced by unresolved trade disputes and regional balancing.

For India, these signals reinforce the imperative to bolster domestic capabilities in defense and high-tech sectors while navigating bilateral “mini-deals” and diversified partnerships. In Trump’s world, strategic value must be continually earned through tangible contributions and alignment—not assumed.

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