A new documentary titled The Rise of Militias: Is the USA on the Brink of Civil War?, released on YouTube by the ENDEVR channel on December 26, 2025, has reignited public debate about domestic extremism in America. The film, which appears to be a re-packaged version of the 2023–2024 documentary Against All Enemies directed by Charlie Sadoff, examines why some U.S. military veterans have joined far-right militia groups. Featuring interviews with retired General Stanley McChrystal, militia members, and extremism experts, it explores events such as the January 6 Capitol riot and the 2020 plot to kidnap Michigan’s governor, while raising alarms about the potential for political violence to spiral into something far larger.
The provocative title taps into a widespread anxiety: many Americans fear their country could be heading toward civil war. Yet, despite the film’s warnings, the consensus among political scientists, security analysts, and conflict researchers as of late 2025 is clear—the United States is not on the brink of a full-scale civil war.
What Would a Civil War Actually Require?
In political science, a civil war is typically defined as sustained, organized armed conflict between domestic factions that results in at least 1,000 battle-related deaths per year (some definitions use higher thresholds). Historical examples—the American Civil War, the Spanish Civil War, or more recent conflicts in Syria and Yemen—involved large-scale military defections, competing governments controlling territory, and prolonged fighting with conventional forces.
None of these conditions exist in the contemporary United States:
- There are no secessionist movements with territorial control.
- The U.S. military remains overwhelmingly loyal to the constitutional chain of command and has shown no signs of fracturing along ideological lines.
- No insurgent army capable of sustained operations against federal or state forces has emerged.
Analyses from organizations such as the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) describe the risk of civil war as “negligible” in the near term. While inflammatory rhetoric and sporadic violence are concerning, they do not meet the threshold of organized civil war.
The Real Concern: Rising Political Violence
This is not to downplay the genuine risks. Domestic extremism, particularly from far-right groups, has increased since 2020. Militias such as the Oath Keepers and Three Percenters recruited veterans who brought military training and tactical knowledge to their ranks. The January 6 attack demonstrated that coordinated political violence is possible, and threats against elected officials, judges, and election workers reached record levels in recent years.
However, the post-January 6 response significantly weakened these networks. Leaders of the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys received lengthy prison sentences, active militia groups nationwide have dwindled to an estimated 50–200, and private paramilitary organizations remain illegal in all 50 states. Many groups are now fragmented, cautious, and focused more on online rhetoric and small-scale training than on large operations.
Experts like Barbara F. Walter, author of How Civil Wars Start, point out that the United States displays some risk factors—democratic backsliding, extreme polarization along identity lines, and the proliferation of firearms—but these alone do not trigger civil war without additional catalysts such as state collapse or mass military defection.
Perception vs. Reality
Public fear often outpaces the evidence. Recent polls indicate that roughly 40% of Americans believe a civil war is likely within the next decade. Media coverage, social media amplification, and documentaries with alarmist titles contribute to this perception. In reality, annual political fatalities in the U.S. remain in the low dozens—tragic and unacceptable, but orders of magnitude below civil-war levels.
The greater danger lies in episodic, decentralized violence: lone-wolf attacks, localized clashes around contentious events, or intimidation campaigns that erode democratic norms. These incidents can deepen division and create a self-reinforcing cycle of mistrust if left unaddressed.
Moving Forward
The documentary serves a valuable purpose in highlighting veteran radicalization and the appeal of extremist ideologies to those who feel alienated. Addressing these root causes—improving mental health support for veterans, countering disinformation, reducing polarization, and consistently enforcing laws against private armies—offers the best path to preventing further escalation.
In summary, while the United States faces serious challenges from domestic extremism and political division, it is not on the brink of civil war in 2025 or the immediate future. Sensational titles may drive views, but the evidence points to a more manageable, if still urgent, set of problems that can be confronted through democratic institutions, rule of law, and renewed civic commitment.
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