Pacts, Patronage, and Fear: How Myanmar’s Junta Chief Maintains His Grip on Power
BANGKOK — Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the 69-year-old junta leader who seized power in a 2021 coup that ousted Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government, continues to dominate Myanmar’s political landscape. Despite presiding over a brutal civil war that has displaced millions, killed thousands of civilians, and eroded military control over large swathes of the country, he has weathered internal pressures and battlefield setbacks through a calculated blend of elite pacts, patronage networks, and an atmosphere of fear.
His name does not appear on any ballot, and his image is absent from campaign materials. Yet, as Myanmar conducts its multi-phase general election—starting December 28, 2025, with further rounds on January 11 and January 25, 2026—Min Aung Hlaing looms large over the process. The polls, limited to areas under junta control and widely dismissed by the United Nations, Western governments, and rights groups as neither free nor fair, serve as a mechanism to legitimize continued military influence through proxies.
Elite Pacts and Power-Sharing
At the core of Min Aung Hlaing’s strategy is careful management of the military elite. Power-sharing is facilitated through embedded elite pacts within the officer corps, where the survival of the regime is inextricably linked to the collective survival of senior officers. This approach diffuses responsibility, prevents factional fractures, and maintains cohesion even amid territorial losses to ethnic armed groups and resistance forces.
The ongoing election exemplifies this tactic. By orchestrating a staged transfer of “state responsibilities” to a new civilian government—likely dominated by the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP)—Min Aung Hlaing aims to create a facade of political transition while retaining ultimate control. The 2008 constitution ensures that 25% of parliamentary seats remain reserved for serving military personnel, and key security ministries stay under armed forces oversight, limiting any civilian president’s authority.
Analysts describe this as an “elite management strategy” that preserves unity by sharing superficial power and placating potential rivals. Reuters interviews with people familiar with the general and junta politics experts highlight how Min Aung Hlaing has navigated these dynamics, rewarding loyalists while neutralizing threats.
Patronage as a Tool of Loyalty
Patronage remains a cornerstone of Min Aung Hlaing’s rule. He distributes economic benefits and influential positions to secure allegiance within the Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s armed forces). Loyal generals receive lucrative appointments at the helm of military-linked conglomerates, which form a vast, self-sustaining economic empire. Others are placed in civilian oversight roles or diplomatic positions that bolster the regime’s international standing.
For instance, figures like retired officer and former UN ambassador Than Swe, now serving as foreign minister, have been elevated to handle outreach and coach the reclusive general on emerging from diplomatic isolation. This network extends to rebuilding ties with key partners such as China and Russia, which have provided military support and diplomatic backing, including for the election.
Min Aung Hlaing’s pre-coup behavior foreshadowed this approach. Even as the military’s political role diminished under quasi-civilian governments in the 2010s, he actively engaged with community and religious leaders—actions that, according to those close to him, revealed a deep political ambition beyond that of a conventional soldier.
The Role of Fear and Repression
Underpinning these incentives is an pervasive element of fear. Min Aung Hlaing has demonstrated ruthlessness in dealing with perceived threats, detaining senior officers, issuing court-martials, demotions, or imprisonment on charges like corruption. One notable case involved a once-likely successor who was court-martialed, sending a clear message to potential challengers.
This combination of rewards and punishments controls rivals and discourages dissent. Officers face not only professional repercussions but also risks to their families or retribution from resistance groups in the event of defection. The military’s self-image as the ultimate guardian of national unity, Bamar ethnic dominance, and Buddhism—reinforced by institutions like the Defence Services Academy—further entrenches loyalty, even as defeats expose cracks in prestige.
Despite criticism from pro-military quarters and unprecedented internal pressure, Min Aung Hlaing’s political acumen has prevented a full collapse of cohesion. His background—a law graduate from Yangon University who rose through the ranks—has equipped him to balance these elements effectively.
A Fluid and Uncertain Future
As the election unfolds amid ongoing conflict and a humanitarian crisis, Min Aung Hlaing’s strategy appears geared toward a controlled transition. He has hinted at considering a successor as armed forces chief, potentially shifting to a more overtly political role. However, the next generation of leaders is unlikely to diverge significantly in approach, given the military’s entrenched interests.
The junta’s information ministry did not respond to requests for comment on these dynamics. Yet, through pacts that bind elites together, patronage that sustains support, and fear that suppresses opposition, Min Aung Hlaing has sustained his hold on power in one of Southeast Asia’s most turbulent periods. Whether this fragile equilibrium endures as the civil war rages on remains to be seen.
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