America Must Salvage Its Relationship With India
The U.S.-India relationship, once hailed as a cornerstone of Indo-Pacific strategy, now faces one of its most severe tests in decades. A recent article in Foreign Affairs titled “America Must Salvage Its Relationship With India — Or Risk Losing a Global Swing State”, published on January 16, 2026, by Richard Fontaine (CEO of the Center for a New American Security) and Lisa Curtis (Director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at CNAS), underscores the urgency of repair.
When Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, bilateral ties stood at an historic peak. Built over more than two decades through bipartisan U.S. efforts and aligned Indian governments, the partnership featured formal defense agreements (including COMCASA, LEMOA, and BECA), deepened technology collaboration, and robust economic engagement. India emerged as a critical counterbalance to China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific, with frameworks like the Quad (U.S., India, Japan, Australia) symbolizing shared commitment to a free and open region.
Yet, by mid-2025, relations had deteriorated sharply. The primary catalyst was the Trump administration’s imposition of punitive tariffs on Indian exports to the United States. Initial reciprocal tariffs of 25% were doubled to 50% in August 2025, explicitly aimed at pressuring India to halt its substantial purchases of discounted Russian crude oil — a move driven by Washington’s efforts to isolate Moscow amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict. India, reliant on affordable energy imports to fuel its growth, viewed these demands as an infringement on its strategic autonomy and refused to comply fully.
Compounding the economic friction were diplomatic irritants. Trump has claimed personal credit for de-escalating a brief India-Pakistan conflict in May 2025 and repeatedly offered U.S. mediation on the longstanding Kashmir dispute — gestures New Delhi has categorically rejected as unwelcome interference. Bilateral trade negotiations, intended to yield a comprehensive agreement, stalled over sensitive issues including agriculture, dairy market access, and energy sourcing. Public criticisms from U.S. officials, including characterizations of India’s economy as stagnant, further strained ties and impacted Indian public opinion.
The authors describe this as one of the worst crises in U.S.-India relations in a generation, warning that prolonged damage could reverse 25 years of progress. India, as a global swing state in a multipolar world, holds outsized influence: its alignment (or drift) could shape outcomes on China containment, supply chain resilience, and democratic norms. Shared concerns about Beijing’s rise remain a strong foundation, but the current transactional approach — prioritizing U.S. trade deficit reduction and short-term wins — risks alienating a key partner.
To salvage the relationship, Fontaine and Curtis urge swift action from the Trump administration:
- Reduce or eliminate the elevated tariffs to restore economic goodwill.
- Cease claims of mediating India-Pakistan de-escalation and refrain from Kashmir-related offers.
- Prioritize the long-term strategic convergence over immediate personal or political gains, such as trade leverage or high-profile accolades.
Encouraging signs of potential recovery have emerged in early 2026. The new U.S. Ambassador to India, Sergio Gor — a close Trump confidant who presented his credentials to President Droupadi Murmu on January 14 — has emphasized deepening cooperation in defense, trade, technology, and critical minerals. In his initial statements in New Delhi, Gor highlighted ongoing virtual talks and described the partnership as essential, with no more vital partner than India. India’s Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal recently noted that the first tranche of a bilateral trade deal is “very near”, though no firm deadline has been set, signaling active engagement despite past hurdles.
India has also begun reducing its Russian oil imports (which peaked in 2025), partly in response to U.S. pressure and sanctions on Russian energy firms, while exploring alternatives including greater U.S. crude shipments.
The coming months will be pivotal. Potential high-level visits, including a possible trip by President Trump to India, and progress on the trade front could mark a reset. Yet, India’s pursuit of strategic autonomy — balancing relations with Russia, China, and the West — means New Delhi has options. The U.S. would feel the absence of a robust Indian partnership in addressing global challenges, particularly Chinese dominance.
Ultimately, the Foreign Affairs piece serves as both a stark warning and a pragmatic call to action: the U.S.-India bond, forged through patience and mutual interest, remains salvageable — but only if Washington acts decisively to realign transactional impulses with enduring strategic imperatives.
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