In a stark warning that has reverberated across media outlets, University of Pennsylvania law professor Claire Finkelstein has drawn direct parallels between the escalating tensions in Minnesota and a high-level simulation her team conducted on how a second American civil war might begin. Finkelstein, the Algernon Biddle Professor of Law and Philosophy, and director of the Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law (CERL) at Penn, appeared on PBS NewsHour and authored a January 21, 2026, op-ed in The Guardian detailing the alarming similarities.
The unrest in Minnesota stems from a large-scale federal immigration enforcement operation launched in early January 2026. Thousands of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents, supported by Border Patrol and other federal personnel, have been deployed primarily to Minneapolis. The administration has framed the actions as responses to immigration violations and related fraud investigations. However, reports describe aggressive tactics: raids on communities, use of unmarked vehicles, excessive force against protesters, and clashes that have left civilians injured or dead.
A pivotal incident occurred on January 7, when an ICE agent fatally shot Renee Nicole Good, a legal observer monitoring federal activities. Additional shootings and confrontations followed, including the use of tear gas, pepper balls, and other munitions against demonstrators. Protests have intensified, with residents and local officials accusing federal agents of overreach, lawlessness, and targeting based on appearance or accent. Community resistance has included attempts to shield individuals and monitor operations, leading to further arrests and violence.
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, a Democrat, has sharply criticized the federal presence, describing it as chaotic and traumatic for communities. He placed the state’s National Guard on standby to support local law enforcement if needed, while urging peaceful protest and appealing directly to President Trump to “turn the temperature down” and halt what he called a campaign of retribution. Walz has emphasized de-escalation, warning that chaos serves no one’s interests.
In response, President Trump has repeatedly threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act—a rarely used 1807 law allowing the president to deploy federal troops domestically to suppress unrest. The Pentagon reportedly placed elements of the 11th Airborne Division on standby for potential deployment to Minnesota. The administration has also opened criminal investigations into Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey for allegedly obstructing federal operations, heightening fears of direct state-federal confrontation.
Finkelstein’s concerns are rooted in a tabletop exercise CERL conducted in October 2024. The simulation involved government officials, former military leaders, and legal experts war-gaming a scenario in which a president orders an unpopular federal law-enforcement action in a major city (modeled on Philadelphia). When the state governor resists by maintaining control of the National Guard, federal authorities attempt to federalize it, leading to clashes and eventual deployment of active-duty troops. The exercise highlighted rapid escalation risks, institutional vulnerabilities—exacerbated by recent Supreme Court immunity rulings—and the potential for “green-on-green” violence between state and federal forces.
In her Guardian piece and PBS interview with Amna Nawaz, Finkelstein stated that developments in Minnesota “closely mirror” the simulated scenario. Key parallels include federal overreach using agencies like ICE as a paramilitary tool, state-level resistance, threats of Insurrection Act invocation, and the specter of armed conflict between authorities loyal to different levels of government. She stressed that the simulation was not a prediction but a stress test of rule-of-law safeguards, including the Posse Comitatus Act limiting military involvement in domestic law enforcement.
Other experts have echoed the alarm. Political scientist Steve Saideman suggested the U.S. could be “hours or days” from escalation if National Guard units block federal operations, prompting Army intervention. Discussions on platforms like Reddit reflect widespread concern about deepening urban-rural divides, institutional breakdowns, and the potential for broader strife.
As of late January 2026, the situation remains volatile but has not escalated to full-scale armed conflict between state and federal forces. Legal challenges continue, including efforts to limit ICE actions and calls for independent investigations into incidents like Good’s death. A reported phone call between Trump and Walz suggested possible de-escalation, with agreements to allow local authorities to probe shootings and reduce federal presence.
Finkelstein and others emphasize that constitutional mechanisms still exist to prevent catastrophe, but Minnesota serves as a critical test of whether they will hold amid heightened political polarization. The professor’s warning underscores a broader question: how close is the nation to the brink her simulation foresaw?
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