Cuba Emerges as Trump’s Apparent Next Target After Venezuela Operation and Iran Tensions
Following the dramatic U.S. military operation on January 3, 2026, that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and amid heightened tensions with Iran, the Trump administration has shifted its focus to Cuba as the apparent next priority in its aggressive foreign policy push in the Western Hemisphere.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly signaled that Havana is in a precarious position. In statements aboard Air Force One shortly after the Venezuela action, he described Cuba as “ready to fall” and a “failing nation” that may not hold out much longer. On Truth Social, he declared emphatically: “THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO!” He urged Cuban leaders to “make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE,” highlighting the severance of subsidized Venezuelan oil shipments that had long sustained Cuba’s economy. Without this support, experts warn of impending severe energy shortages, blackouts, and potential humanitarian crises on the island.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a Cuban-American with a history of advocating tough measures against Havana, has reinforced this stance. At a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, Rubio stated that the U.S. “would love to see the regime there change,” describing it as a “great benefit” if Cuba were no longer under its current autocratic system. He suggested that Cuban officials should be “concerned” following events in Venezuela. Reports from outlets like Politico and The Wall Street Journal indicate the administration is actively seeking Cuban insiders willing to negotiate an end to communist rule, with regime change targeted potentially by the end of 2026 to solidify Trump’s legacy in the region.
Options under discussion include a naval blockade—the first such measure since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis—to completely halt oil imports, alongside intensified sanctions targeting Cuba’s financial networks, remittances, and military-linked entities. This pressure aims to exploit Cuba’s economic vulnerability post-Venezuela, potentially sparking internal unrest rather than relying on direct military intervention.
The broader strategy aligns with Trump’s revival of a “Donroe Doctrine”—a rebranded Monroe Doctrine asserting U.S. dominance in the Americas to counter influences from Russia, China, and Iran. Allies like Venezuelan opposition figure Maria Corina Machado have echoed this, stating that with Venezuela “free,” Cuba is next in line for liberation from communism and dictatorship. Some U.S. senators, including Rick Scott, have predicted similar shifts in Nicaragua and Colombia.
While Iran has drawn Trump’s warnings—particularly threats of intervention if protests are suppressed—Cuba’s proximity, economic isolation, and the direct fallout from the Venezuela operation make it the more immediate focus in the hemisphere. Cuban officials have pushed back defiantly, with President Miguel Díaz-Canel rejecting U.S. dictation and seeking alternative oil suppliers from partners like Russia, China, or others.
Cuba’s history of resilience—enduring the post-Soviet “Special Period” in the 1990s and maintaining diversified trade—suggests it may weather the storm, though the loss of Venezuelan aid represents a severe blow. Critics caution that aggressive U.S. tactics risk humanitarian fallout, mass migration, or regional instability without a clear path to stable transition.
As of late January 2026, no military action against Cuba has been confirmed, but the combination of public rhetoric, policy signals, and economic strangulation points to Havana as the administration’s clear next target in its campaign to reshape the region.
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