As massive anti-government protests continue to grip Iran, fueled by severe economic collapse and brutal state repression, bold claims are emerging that the Islamic Republic’s regime could fall in the coming days or weeks. In a recent Sky News Australia segment, former Victorian Liberal Party president Michael Kroger declared, “War is coming” to Iran’s “depleted” regime, arguing that it is now severely weakened and that decisive action could occur imminently—not in months, but in days or weeks.
Kroger pointed to Iran’s limited allies, depleted resources following recent conflicts, and the regime’s vulnerability as key factors. “If they were ever going to get rid of this regime, it’s going to be now,” he told host Andrew Bolt. He described the moment as transformative, suggesting the fall of the regime would “change the world forever”.
The unrest traces back to late December 2025, when demonstrations erupted in Tehran’s historic Grand Bazaar over skyrocketing prices, hyperinflation, and the rial’s dramatic devaluation—reaching record lows of around 1.4 million rials per U.S. dollar. What began as economic grievances quickly spread nationwide, encompassing all 31 provinces and evolving into calls for regime change. Protesters have highlighted systemic corruption, mismanagement, energy and water shortages, and the regime’s prioritization of military spending over public welfare.
The government’s response has been ferocious. Security forces have unleashed lethal crackdowns, resulting in thousands of deaths—reports suggest figures far exceeding previous waves like 2022’s Woman, Life, Freedom movement—and mass arrests. Nationwide internet blackouts and mobile network shutdowns have further isolated citizens and deepened economic suffering. Despite claims by authorities that the protests were suppressed by mid-January 2026, unrest persists, with analysts describing this as the most widespread challenge to the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution.
Geopolitical pressures compound the internal crisis. The June 2025 “12-day war” with Israel, involving U.S. support, inflicted significant damage on Iran’s nuclear facilities and defenses while weakening its regional proxies. Ongoing sanctions have exacerbated isolation, contributing to the economic freefall.
International voices have grown increasingly vocal. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated on January 28, 2026, that the regime’s “days are numbered”, describing it as illegitimate and sustained only by “violence and terror” against its people. He suggested collapse could come in a matter of weeks.
U.S. President Donald Trump has escalated rhetoric, warning of military consequences if repression continues. He confirmed a “massive armada” and significant U.S. forces heading toward the region, threatening that failure to negotiate a nuclear deal—or halt executions and violence—would lead to strikes “far worse” than previous actions. Trump urged Tehran to “come to the table” for a “fair and equitable deal” with no nuclear weapons, while reiterating readiness for forceful response.
Iranian officials have rejected these threats, vowing a powerful retaliation to any attack and reaffirming their nuclear program’s peaceful intent.
Experts and think tanks offer a nuanced view. While the regime appears more fragile than ever—lacking solutions to economic catastrophe, facing no major internal defections yet, and confronting external military threats—collapse is not guaranteed. Brutal suppression has historically quelled uprisings, though at enormous human cost. Sustained protests, combined with sanctions and potential U.S. or Israeli intervention, could accelerate change, but might also provoke nationalist backlash or prolonged chaos.
The situation remains highly volatile. As one former UN official noted, the convergence of economic meltdown, political frustration, and international isolation has left the regime unprecedentedly vulnerable—but outcomes range from survival through intensified repression to sudden upheaval or escalated regional conflict. With U.S. assets repositioning and warnings intensifying, the coming days could prove decisive for Iran’s future.
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