Trump is just the beginning | John Gray on the future of American politics
Donald Trump’s return to the White House in his second term is not merely a political comeback—it’s the opening chapter of a profound and potentially irreversible transformation in American politics. British philosopher John Gray, a longtime critic of liberal optimism and Enlightenment illusions of progress, argues in a November 2025 interview with the Institute of Art and Ideas (IAI) that Trump is just the beginning. Far from representing an isolated aberration, Trump’s disruptive style and populist appeal signal the emergence of deeper, more structured shifts toward illiberal governance in the United States.
Gray portrays Trump as a transitional figure—a kind of “godfather” to future populist or authoritarian-leaning movements. While Trump’s administration is often chaotic and personality-driven, what follows him could prove more systematic and enduring. Gray points to figures like Vice President JD Vance as potentially more dangerous in the long run: a younger, more ideologically coherent operator who could institutionalize changes that erode traditional democratic norms and constitutional checks.
In Gray’s view, Trump’s re-election marks the definitive end of the post-Cold War liberal order. The progressive regime that dominated much of the late 20th and early 21st centuries—built on assumptions of perpetual advancement toward greater freedom, equality, and global integration—has collapsed under its own contradictions. Gray has elaborated on this in his New Statesman writings around the same period, describing Trump’s victory as the “triumph of illiberal democracy.” He contends that America’s constitutional safeguards, designed to prevent concentrated power, are being tested in ways that could render them obsolete. Constitutions, he reminds us, are not eternal; they can evolve or be supplanted.
Central to Gray’s analysis is the idea that today’s populism is not simply demagoguery or ignorance, as many liberals claim. Instead, it represents a rational backlash against the dislocations caused by liberal policies themselves—economic disruptions from globalization, cultural upheavals from rapid social change, and a perceived elite betrayal in matters of truth, identity, and community. Mainstream parties and institutions long dismissed or suppressed these grievances, only to see them erupt in support for Trump and similar figures.
Gray goes further, suggesting that what is unfolding in America may be worse than traditional fascism in certain respects. Unlike the rigid, ideologically driven fascist regimes of the interwar period, contemporary American developments are more fluid, culturally rooted, and capable of co-opting democratic mechanisms while hollowing out their substance. The result could be a more embedded form of illiberal democracy: majoritarian rule that subordinates liberal institutions, free expression, and minority protections to executive or populist priorities.
This shift extends beyond personality or party. Gray sees Trump’s tenure forcing irreversible changes in how American government operates—weakening bureaucratic independence, reshaping judicial appointments, and normalizing executive overreach. When Trump’s term ends, the political landscape will look fundamentally different. Successors—whether from his orbit or inspired by it—will inherit a remade Republican Party and a polarized electorate less tethered to old norms. Gray warns that liberalism may persist only in fragmented forms, perhaps in parts of Europe, but even there it faces mounting pressure from nationalist and authoritarian currents.
Gray’s perspective draws from his broader philosophical project, which has consistently challenged faith in historical progress, universal values, and the triumph of reason over human conflict. Books like Straw Dogs and The New Leviathans underscore his realism: human societies are shaped by power, myth, and survival instincts, not inevitable moral improvement. Trump’s success, in this light, exposes the fragility of the liberal experiment and the enduring appeal of alternative visions of order.
As America navigates the early years of Trump 2.0, Gray’s warning is stark: the current moment is not a temporary setback for democracy but the prelude to a new era. Trump may be the catalyst, but the forces he has unleashed—or revealed—are likely to outlast him, reshaping the future of American politics in ways that defy easy reversal.
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