China’s Military Ascent to Near-Superpower Status: The Enduring Role of Russian Assistance
China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has undergone one of the most rapid and comprehensive modernizations in modern military history. Over the past three decades, Russia has played a pivotal—though increasingly diminished—role in this transformation. From the post-Soviet era through the early 2000s, Moscow provided critical weapons systems, technology transfers, and expertise that helped bridge China’s capability gaps with Western powers. While Beijing’s own massive investments, industrial capacity, and indigenous innovation now drive the PLA forward, Russia’s foundational contributions have undeniably accelerated China’s path toward regional dominance and aspirations for global superpower parity.
The Historical Foundation: Russia’s Arms Lifeline to China
In the 1990s and early 2000s, Russia’s defense industry faced severe financial strain following the Soviet Union’s collapse. China, emerging from decades of isolation and technological backwardness, became a vital customer. Moscow sold advanced platforms that filled urgent needs in the PLA:
- Fighter jets: Su-27 Flankers formed the basis for China’s J-11 series and influenced later indigenous designs like the J-16.
- Naval assets: Kilo-class submarines, Sovremenny-class destroyers, and the unfinished Soviet carrier Varyag (rebuilt as China’s first carrier, Liaoning) provided blueprints and operational experience.
- Air defense and missiles: Systems like the S-300 and later S-400 bolstered China’s layered defenses.
- Engines and components: Russian jet engines and other technologies enabled rapid prototyping and production.
These transfers allowed China to reverse-engineer and localize key technologies, jumpstarting self-reliance. Arms deals were pragmatic: Russia gained hard currency and kept factories running, while China closed gaps against potential adversaries like the United States, Japan, and Taiwan. Shared anti-U.S. sentiments further aligned their interests.
From Dependence to Dominance: China’s Self-Sustained Momentum
Today, China’s military progress relies far less on direct Russian imports. Beijing’s defense budget has nearly doubled under Xi Jinping, fueling advances in hypersonics, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and integrated joint operations. The PLA Navy is the world’s largest by hull count (though still trailing in global projection and tonnage), with ambitions for nine aircraft carriers by 2035. Nuclear expansion is accelerating, with estimates of around 600 warheads in 2025 and projections reaching 1,500 by 2035—potentially matching U.S. and Russian ICBM numbers soon after.
The U.S. Department of Defense’s 2025 China Military Power Report describes this buildup as “historic,” with the PLA advancing toward Xi’s milestones: readiness for a Taiwan conflict by 2027, and “world-class” status by 2049. China dominates the Indo-Pacific regionally through anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities, long-range strikes, cyber/space operations, and power projection. While corruption purges (ongoing into 2025–2026) create short-term disruptions, they may ultimately yield a more disciplined force.
Russia’s influence persists in legacy systems and joint activities—such as shared exercises, intelligence exchanges, and recent reports of equipment/training support—but arms sales have declined sharply. China now competes with Russia in global arms markets and has outpaced Moscow in many domains. Moscow has grown cautious about transferring cutting-edge tech, wary of intellectual property risks and China’s rise.
Regional Superpower vs. Global Peer: Where China Stands
- Regionally, China is effectively a superpower. It can challenge U.S. intervention in a Taiwan scenario, control near-shore waters, and impose high costs on adversaries via missiles, submarines, and integrated defenses.
- Globally, it falls short of full superpower status. The U.S. retains edges in overseas basing, carrier experience, nuclear triad maturity, combat-tested operations, and alliances. China lacks extensive power projection and large-scale recent war experience.
Global Firepower rankings place China at #3 overall in 2026, behind the U.S. and sometimes Russia in specific metrics, but its trajectory points upward.
The Irony of the Partnership
Russia’s early generosity helped create a peer competitor that now overshadows it in many areas. As China surges ahead, Moscow may regret past transfers, especially amid its own challenges in Ukraine and economic strains. Yet the relationship endures through mutual U.S. opposition, joint patrols, and pragmatic cooperation—described as a “partnership short of alliance.”
In essence, Russia provided the spark that ignited China’s military rise, but Beijing’s sustained drive, resources, and strategic focus have turned that spark into a roaring fire. China is closing in on superpower levels, particularly in its home region, with Russia’s historical role as a crucial but fading chapter in this story. The implications for global security—especially in the Indo-Pacific—continue to grow as this ascent accelerates.
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