In a wide-ranging analysis, historian and commentator Victor Davis Hanson has described 2026 as potentially the most tumultuous, geostrategically significant, and dangerous year since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the fall of the Berlin Wall — and quite possibly since World War II itself.
According to Hanson, President Donald Trump has acted as a catalyst, “lighting the fuse” on long-simmering global problems that previous administrations across decades had failed to resolve. The result is a compressed timeline of high-stakes military, diplomatic, and political disruptions unfolding simultaneously across multiple theaters. While these moves carry substantial short-term risks — including escalation, economic shocks, and political backlash — they also hold the potential to deliver transformative resolutions to entrenched threats, potentially restoring American preeminence on a scale not seen since the post-World War II era.
A Convergence of Crises and Interventions
Hanson points to several interlocking flashpoints where Trump’s approach of negotiation backed by decisive action is forcing long-delayed reckonings.
In the Middle East, the United States has conducted strikes against Iran’s nuclear program following the collapse of diplomatic efforts. For nearly five decades since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran’s theocratic regime has been accused of pursuing nuclear weapons to dominate the region, threaten Israel and Europe, intimidate Gulf states, and ultimately challenge the United States. Seven previous presidents promised to confront this threat but achieved little lasting progress. The current strategy combines targeted military action against nuclear and military facilities with efforts to erode the regime through internal pressure, uprisings, or economic collapse reminiscent of Venezuela’s trajectory. Risks include temporary disruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, regional retaliation, and broader instability.
In Latin America, the U.S. intervention that removed Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro — described by critics as a narco-linked authoritarian — has triggered what Hanson calls a “westernized constitutional system revolution.” This has ripple effects across the hemisphere, including democratic openings or reforms in countries such as Central America, Chile, Bolivia, Peru, and Argentina. Pressure is mounting on Panama to reduce Chinese and Russian influence over the canal, while Cuba faces mounting economic strain, severed drug-smuggling routes, and incentives for reform and U.S. engagement. Success could dismantle lingering communist and criminal networks close to American shores, but the process involves the inherent dangers of regime change and transitional instability.
On the European and Ukrainian front, Trump is demanding that European allies halt energy purchases that effectively subsidize Russia’s war machine while reducing reliance on U.S. security guarantees. Tactics include weakening Vladimir Putin’s position — building on prior disruptions to groups like the Wagner network and oligarchs — in hopes of eventually realigning Russia away from China and toward a more cooperative stance with the West. This addresses Europe’s long-standing energy vulnerabilities and the protracted Ukraine conflict but strains transatlantic alliances and carries risks of hybrid warfare or escalation.
These actions are deliberately disruptive. They coincide with U.S. domestic political pressures, including midterm elections, and could produce immediate side effects such as higher oil prices, allied friction, and criticism from both isolationist and internationalist quarters. Hanson notes the limited nature of U.S. involvement — relying primarily on air and naval power rather than large-scale ground deployments — and the underlying philosophy that “strength radiates friendship, weakness repels it.”
The Transformational Potential
If these gambles yield favorable outcomes, Hanson argues, 2026 could resolve headaches that have plagued U.S. foreign policy for generations. This includes neutralizing the 47-year Iranian threat and reducing or eliminating the need for permanent U.S. troop presence in parts of the Middle East; ending Cuban subversion, terrorism support, and past nuclear brinkmanship near American shores; dismantling Venezuela’s export of instability and authoritarianism; and stabilizing broader Latin American politics.
The cumulative effect, he suggests, could surpass the impact of the Soviet Union’s collapse in the late 1980s and early 1990s. A freer, more prosperous hemisphere and a Middle East less dominated by revolutionary theocracy could emerge, positioning the United States in a position of renewed preeminence “in a way we haven’t seen at least since World War II.” Many of the current disruptions, Hanson maintains, already show signs of moving toward consensus and positive endpoints.
Broader Global Context and Risks
Hanson’s assessment aligns with wider warnings about 2026 as a pivotal and volatile year. Eurasia Group’s Top Risks for 2026 identifies the “U.S. political revolution” — Trump’s efforts to reshape domestic institutions and unwind elements of the post-World War II international order — as the top global risk, with cascading effects on alliances, norms, and stability.
Europe enters the year with fragile governments, populist pressures, and security vacuums left by shifting U.S. commitments. Russia may pivot toward intensified hybrid operations. Global armed conflicts remain at post-World War II highs, while emerging factors such as rapid AI advancements, energy transitions, and lingering flashpoints (including potential tensions over Taiwan) add layers of uncertainty.
Short-term dangers include oil-price spikes that could derail economic recovery, miscalculations leading to wider military confrontation, or domestic political fallout in the United States. Yet the year’s “transformational” character ultimately depends on outcomes: whether compressed crises produce durable resolutions or spiral into greater chaos.
History is replete with pivot years — 1945, 1989–1991 — that redefined eras. As events in Iran, Venezuela’s post-Maduro transition, Ukraine negotiations, and U.S. domestic politics unfold, 2026 may join their ranks. Whether it is remembered primarily for danger or for lasting positive change remains to be seen — but few observers dispute that the world is in the midst of profound upheaval.
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