WASHINGTON — As the U.S. military operation in Iran enters its fifth week, the conflict is not only testing President Donald Trump’s foreign policy but also accelerating the quiet contest to succeed him in 2028.
With constitutional term limits preventing Trump from seeking a third term, attention within the Republican Party has increasingly focused on two of his closest lieutenants: Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Both men have been drawn into high-stakes negotiations aimed at ending the hostilities, even as they project contrasting approaches that could shape their prospects in the post-Trump era.
Trump has privately polled allies and advisers on the succession question, repeatedly asking some version of “JD or Marco?” according to people familiar with his conversations. The president has enjoyed the kingmaker role, noting philosophical differences—particularly on foreign policy enthusiasm—while emphasizing overall loyalty from both figures.
Iran Conflict as Political Litmus Test
The U.S. strikes, launched in coordination with Israel, target elements of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs while seeking to secure oil passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Rubio has taken a prominent, forward-leaning role in diplomacy and public defense of the operation. He has briefed allies, including at G7 meetings, described the campaign as “on or ahead of schedule,” and stated that objectives could be met “without any ground troops” and concluded “in a matter of weeks, not months.”
Rubio’s alignment with the administration’s more assertive posture has elevated his visibility. Supporters view him as a steady hand in crisis management, potentially strengthening his appeal among donors and traditional foreign policy voices in the GOP. However, he faced brief backlash early in the conflict for comments perceived as suggesting Israel influenced the U.S. decision to strike, prompting damage control.
In contrast, Vance—whose political brand includes skepticism toward prolonged overseas entanglements and “forever wars”—has adopted a more cautious public tone. He has defended the administration’s actions and participated in negotiations alongside Rubio, Jared Kushner, and envoy Steve Witkoff, but insiders describe him as less enthusiastic about aspects of the operation. This positioning allows him to stay aligned with Trump while preserving credibility with the MAGA base’s anti-interventionist instincts if the conflict drags on or proves costly.
Impact on Trump and the 2028 Landscape
Trump’s own approval rating has slipped amid the war and economic ripple effects. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showed it falling to 36%, the lowest since his return to the White House, driven by rising fuel prices and public disapproval of the Iran campaign. Other surveys have shown similar pressures, though Republican support for the operation remains relatively strong.
Analysts and Republican officials say the war’s outcome could prove decisive for the 2028 contenders:
- A swift, perceived success might bolster Rubio’s credentials as an effective operator on the world stage.
- A longer or more expensive engagement could amplify Vance’s appeal to voters wary of neoconservative-style interventions.
Straw polls and early soundings, such as at conservative gatherings, have shown Vance maintaining a lead among the core MAGA base, while Rubio has gained ground—particularly with some donors and establishment-leaning Republicans. Rubio has previously indicated he would not challenge Vance aggressively and could consider a vice-presidential slot, but the dynamics remain fluid.
Administration officials have downplayed any open rivalry, stressing unity and loyalty. Trump continues to praise both men’s contributions while keeping his options open, including the possibility of endorsing one—or even floating a unity ticket.
Broader Implications
The Iran conflict highlights deeper tensions within the modern Republican coalition: between populist restraint and more traditional hawkishness. Other potential 2028 figures exist, but Vance and Rubio currently dominate early discussions as the primary heirs apparent.
For now, the “succession race” remains informal—an audition shaped by real-time crisis management rather than open campaigning. Its direction will likely hinge on battlefield and diplomatic developments in the coming weeks, economic conditions at home, and Trump’s ultimate preference.
The situation underscores a central reality of the current GOP: while Trump remains the dominant force, the party is already quietly preparing for life after his presidency. How Vance and Rubio navigate the Iran war may well determine who carries the Trump banner forward.
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