In the modern era of Middle Eastern politics, few figures have captured the global spotlight quite like Mohammed bin Salman, often referred to simply as MBS. As the Crown Prince and de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, MBS has crafted an image that blends youthful reformist zeal with the ruthless consolidation of power. His tenure has heralded sweeping changes in Saudi society and economy, yet it has also been marred by a chilling record of human rights abuses, political repression, and international scandals. As the world weighs the promise of modernization against the reality of authoritarian rule, one question looms large: how dangerous is Mohammed bin Salman?
The Rise of MBS: A New Face for an Old Kingdom
Born in 1985, Mohammed bin Salman is the son of King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. His ascension to power was swift and decisive, bypassing older and more experienced royals. In 2015, following the death of King Abdullah, King Salman named his son as the Minister of Defense. Two years later, MBS ousted his cousin, Mohammed bin Nayef, from the position of Crown Prince in what many viewed as a palace coup. Since then, MBS has held the reins of Saudi Arabia’s power structure, shaping its policies both domestically and abroad.
MBS quickly became the face of Saudi Arabia’s ambitious Vision 2030 program, a sweeping initiative aimed at diversifying the kingdom’s economy away from oil dependency. This blueprint envisions a transformed Saudi Arabia, with thriving sectors in tourism, technology, and entertainment. At the same time, MBS began to present himself as a reformer willing to modernize one of the world’s most conservative societies. His early decisions to permit women to drive, curtail the powers of the religious police, and promote cultural activities won him praise in many Western circles. These moves positioned him as a bold leader capable of dragging the kingdom into the 21st century.
The Dark Side: Repression and Ruthlessness
However, beneath the veneer of progressivism lies a deeply authoritarian streak. MBS’s rise has coincided with a brutal campaign to consolidate his power. Members of the royal family, government officials, and business elites found themselves arrested, detained, or coerced into loyalty. The most dramatic episode occurred in 2017, when dozens of princes and businessmen were rounded up and detained in the opulent Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Riyadh. Officially framed as an anti-corruption campaign, critics argue it was a calculated move to neutralize rivals and assert control.
The repression extended far beyond the royal circle. Activists, dissidents, journalists, and even ordinary citizens who voiced criticism of the regime found themselves targeted. Reports from human rights organizations reveal a sharp uptick in arbitrary detentions, unfair trials, and harsh sentences under MBS’s leadership. The Saudi legal system continues to impose severe punishments, including the death penalty, for offenses ranging from terrorism to social media posts critical of the state. In 2024 alone, Saudi Arabia executed 330 individuals, with over 150 put to death for non-lethal crimes—marking the highest rate of executions in decades.
The Khashoggi Murder: A Global Outcry
The most notorious chapter in MBS’s record came in October 2018, with the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. A former insider turned critic, Khashoggi was lured to the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, where he was brutally murdered and dismembered. The killing sent shockwaves across the globe, igniting widespread condemnation and calls for accountability. U.S. intelligence agencies concluded that the operation was approved by MBS himself, a charge the crown prince has consistently denied.
Despite the global outcry, the political consequences for MBS were limited. Key allies, including the United States, maintained strategic ties with Saudi Arabia, driven by economic interests, oil markets, and regional security. In 2022, MBS was granted sovereign immunity in a U.S. civil case related to Khashoggi’s murder—a legal shield that sparked outrage among human rights groups but underscored the geopolitical leverage he continues to wield.
Economic Ambitions: Vision 2030 and the Public Investment Fund
MBS’s most high-profile initiative, Vision 2030, represents an audacious attempt to reshape the Saudi economy. At its heart is the Public Investment Fund (PIF), the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund, which MBS chairs. Under his guidance, the PIF has become one of the world’s most aggressive investors, channeling billions into global technology firms, entertainment, sports, and infrastructure projects. The goal is to diversify Saudi revenue streams and reduce its dependence on oil exports.
Yet, critics argue that these investments are not purely economic. They form part of a broader strategy to project soft power and reshape the kingdom’s image abroad, diverting attention from ongoing human rights abuses. High-profile events such as the hosting of international concerts, sporting events, and film festivals serve to rebrand Saudi Arabia as a modern, open society—while dissent remains heavily policed at home.
Human rights organizations, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, have accused the Saudi leadership of “sportswashing”—using sports and entertainment ventures to deflect criticism from their repressive policies. Despite MBS’s promises of economic reform, the political space within Saudi Arabia remains tightly controlled, with little tolerance for opposition or independent activism.
Geopolitical Leverage: A Dangerous Balancing Act
Internationally, MBS has positioned himself as an indispensable player in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Saudi Arabia’s role as a major oil producer gives it leverage over global energy markets, and MBS has used this to maintain strong relationships with world powers. His policies have sought to counter Iranian influence, engage in diplomatic rapprochement with Israel, and balance relationships with both the West and emerging powers like China.
This geopolitical balancing act has shielded MBS from the full brunt of international condemnation. While Western leaders may voice concerns over human rights abuses, their strategic interests—especially in energy security and counterterrorism—often prevent more decisive action. For MBS, this dynamic reinforces his sense of impunity, allowing him to continue his policies largely unchecked.
Reformist Façade, Authoritarian Reality
The dichotomy between MBS’s reformist image and his authoritarian practices lies at the heart of global debates about his leadership. While the lifting of social restrictions, particularly on women’s rights and entertainment, has been celebrated, these reforms operate within a framework that brooks no political dissent. Freedoms of speech, assembly, and association remain strictly curtailed. Activists who push for broader reforms often find themselves silenced or imprisoned.
For many observers, MBS embodies a new model of authoritarianism: one that embraces economic modernization and social liberalization in certain areas while maintaining ironclad political control. This model seeks to reconcile the demands of a modern global economy with the imperatives of dynastic rule.
How Dangerous is MBS?
The question of how dangerous Mohammed bin Salman is cannot be answered in simple terms. His leadership has undoubtedly introduced changes to Saudi Arabia that were unthinkable a decade ago. Yet, these changes come at the cost of political repression, human rights abuses, and a chilling intolerance for dissent. His willingness to use state power to eliminate critics, as evidenced by the Khashoggi assassination, reveals a ruthlessness that cannot be ignored.
On the global stage, MBS remains a crucial figure, courted by major powers and influential in shaping regional politics. His ambitions for economic transformation, while significant, are shadowed by an authoritarian grip that stifles meaningful political change. In the end, MBS represents both the promise and the peril of modern autocracy—a leader who can modernize his country while remaining dangerously intolerant of those who challenge his rule.
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