Germany has embarked on its most ambitious military rearmament program since the end of the Cold War. Under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Berlin has promised to transform the Bundeswehr into the most powerful conventional force in Europe by the end of this decade. Billions of euros are earmarked for tanks, missiles, ammunition, radar systems, and next-generation defense technologies.
Yet, this ambitious plan faces a silent but potentially devastating obstacle: Germany’s dependence on China for critical minerals. These minerals are the lifeblood of modern weapons systems, and without them, Berlin’s vision of military renewal could collapse before it takes shape.
Why Critical Minerals Matter
The advanced weapons and systems Germany intends to field by 2029 require a steady supply of rare earth elements and strategic minerals.
- Neodymium and Dysprosium – Essential for high-powered magnets used in radar and guidance systems.
- Tungsten and Titanium – Crucial for armor-piercing ammunition and aerospace applications.
- Graphite – Required for high-performance batteries, including those in drones and electric combat vehicles.
- Gallium and Germanium – Vital for semiconductors, infrared optics, and satellite communications.
Without these inputs, modern military platforms—from missiles and drones to communication networks—simply cannot function.
China’s Near-Monopoly
The problem is that China dominates the global supply chain for these materials.
- It controls more than half of the world’s processing capacity for most critical minerals.
- For certain materials like gallium and germanium, Beijing’s share is as high as 86%.
- The European Union as a whole imports 95% of its strategic raw materials, and Germany has virtually no domestic processing capability to reduce this dependency.
This dominance gives China not only economic leverage but also strategic power over Europe’s rearmament ambitions.
A Fragile Strategic Foundation
Analysts warn that the entire German defense modernization plan rests on shaky ground. Jakob Kullik, a defense industry researcher at Chemnitz University, has argued that if Beijing were to cut off supplies—either for political leverage or in retaliation to Western policies—Germany’s rearmament could “come to a screeching halt.”
The stakes are not hypothetical. China has already demonstrated its willingness to use critical minerals as a geopolitical tool. In response to U.S. tariffs, Beijing restricted exports of 11 critical minerals, triggering production delays and cost hikes across Western industries.
Europe’s Exposure
Germany is not alone in this vulnerability. The European Union lacks a secure supply chain for many of these materials. Despite efforts to brand its policies as reducing “strategic dependencies,” the EU continues to rely on imports from abroad, with China remaining the dominant player.
The defense sector is particularly exposed because military contracts are time-sensitive and production delays can have far-reaching consequences for deterrence and readiness. Unlike consumer industries, militaries cannot easily substitute materials or wait for alternative suppliers to scale up.
Political and Strategic Implications
For Chancellor Merz, this dependence creates a paradox. On the one hand, Germany is investing heavily in its defense to reduce reliance on the United States and assert its role as Europe’s security guarantor. On the other, it risks replacing military dependence on Washington with industrial dependence on Beijing.
China’s leverage could become especially problematic if geopolitical tensions intensify—whether over Taiwan, Russia’s war in Ukraine, or broader global trade disputes. Any disruption in supply chains could paralyze Germany’s rearmament, leaving Europe exposed at a time of mounting global instability.
The Search for Alternatives
Recognizing the danger, Germany and its European partners have begun exploring options:
- Diversification of Supply – Increasing imports from countries like Australia, Canada, and African nations with rich mineral deposits.
- Recycling Programs – Developing technologies to recycle critical minerals from old electronics and military equipment.
- Domestic Processing Capacity – Investing in refining and processing within Europe, though this will take years and significant capital.
- Strategic Stockpiling – Building reserves of critical minerals to buffer against potential export bans or supply shocks.
Yet, these measures are still in their infancy and cannot quickly offset the entrenched dominance of Chinese suppliers.
Germany’s defense modernization project is bold, expensive, and strategically necessary in today’s uncertain world. But its success hinges on an underappreciated factor: the supply of critical minerals. As long as China remains the gatekeeper of these resources, Berlin’s ambition to lead Europe’s defense risks being undermined.
For now, Germany’s military future rests on a paradox: the same geopolitical rival whose rise motivates Europe to strengthen its defenses also controls the resources without which that very rearmament cannot succeed.
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