Trump’s India Policy Backfires: How Tariffs Pushed New Delhi Closer to Moscow and Beijing
When former U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House, one of his first foreign policy targets was India. Frustrated with what he viewed as New Delhi’s insufficient support for Western efforts to isolate Russia, Trump slapped new tariffs on Indian exports. The move was designed to force India to reduce its purchases of Russian oil and defense equipment. Instead, it has had the opposite effect. Rather than backing down, India has doubled down—strengthening its strategic and economic ties with Moscow and even signaling a potential thaw with Beijing.
This miscalculation is not just a setback for Washington. It has the potential to reshape Asia’s geopolitical landscape in ways that could complicate both U.S. and European strategies for years to come.
U.S. Pressure and India’s Defiance
The Trump administration hoped that tariffs on Indian goods—particularly textiles and pharmaceuticals—would pressure Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government to realign with Washington. But New Delhi responded with defiance.
On a three-day visit to Moscow, Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar openly rebuked Washington’s mixed messaging. He noted that while the United States had once encouraged India to stabilize global energy markets by purchasing Russian oil, it now punished those same actions with economic penalties. His message was clear: India will not allow its foreign policy to be dictated by American domestic politics.
A Flourishing India–Russia Partnership
Far from being weakened, the India–Russia relationship has expanded dramatically in recent years. Trade between the two countries jumped from $13 billion in 2021 to $68 billion in 2024, fueled primarily by India’s imports of discounted Russian crude oil.
During Jaishankar’s Moscow trip, the two countries announced new plans for joint oil and gas exploration in Russia’s Far East and Arctic regions. India, meanwhile, is redirecting exports once bound for the U.S. market toward Russia, with pharmaceuticals and textiles leading the way.
The partnership extends well beyond economics. India continues to depend on Russian military equipment, a relationship that stretches back decades. Despite delays caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine, joint defense projects remain active—reinforcing India’s reliance on Moscow for security needs.
Building New Corridors of Connectivity
Another major dimension of India’s strategic pushback lies in infrastructure. Two ambitious corridors are reshaping India’s trade geography:
- The International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC): Linking India to Russia through Iran and Central Asia, this route bypasses the Suez Canal and creates a faster, cheaper overland pathway for goods.
- The Chennai–Vladivostok Corridor: A proposed maritime route directly connecting India’s east coast to Russia’s Pacific Far East, reducing reliance on traditional Western-controlled sea lanes.
These projects highlight New Delhi’s long-term strategy to diversify trade links and assert independence from Western pressure.
A Possible Thaw with China
In a move that has raised eyebrows in Washington, Jaishankar also met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his Moscow visit. Though relations between India and China have been strained by deadly border clashes and ongoing disputes in the Himalayas, the meeting suggested a tentative easing of tensions.
Both sides discussed regional security and cooperation ahead of Prime Minister Modi’s scheduled trip to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit—his first visit to China in seven years. If Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet at the summit, it would mark a significant diplomatic breakthrough, one that could tilt the balance of power in Asia even further away from the West.
The Strategic Consequences
Trump’s tariff gamble appears to have backfired spectacularly. Instead of isolating Russia, U.S. policy has encouraged India to strengthen ties with Moscow and potentially with Beijing as well. The ripple effects are wide-ranging:
- For India: The move reinforces New Delhi’s doctrine of strategic autonomy, ensuring it remains a power that can engage with both the West and its adversaries on its own terms.
- For the United States: Washington’s heavy-handed tactics may erode goodwill in New Delhi, complicating future cooperation on trade, security, and technology.
- For Ukraine: India’s closer relationship with Russia reduces Kyiv’s ability to rally support from the Global South, where many nations are already skeptical of Western narratives.
- For Global Trade: New corridors like INSTC and the Chennai–Vladivostok route could reshape global shipping patterns, reducing Western dominance over energy and trade flows.
A New Geopolitical Reality
What began as an attempt by Trump to pressure India into compliance has instead accelerated a realignment. India is not turning its back on the United States entirely—Washington remains an important partner in areas like technology, investment, and counterbalancing China. But India is making it clear that it will not sacrifice its energy security or defense autonomy to satisfy American demands.
The larger story is one of unintended consequences. By using tariffs as a blunt instrument of foreign policy, Washington has nudged India closer to a Russia–China axis—an outcome that may ultimately weaken the very coalitions the U.S. seeks to build.
In the shifting chessboard of global politics, India is playing its hand with skill. The United States, meanwhile, may have to rethink its strategy if it hopes to keep New Delhi within its orbit.
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