Tajikistan, a Central Asian nation of 10 million people, is a country of breathtaking mountain landscapes that belies a complex and volatile political reality. Ruled by President Emomali Rahmon with what the documentary describes as an “iron fist”, the country presents a unique and troubling case study in state-enforced secularism confronting a simmering threat of Islamist extremism.
The country was thrust onto the global stage in March 2024, following the horrific terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall on the outskirts of Moscow. Responsibility was claimed by the Islamic State in Khorasan (ISIS-K), and the four alleged perpetrators arrested were all Tajic nationals. This event, which left 145 dead, immediately raised the question of whether Tajikistan is becoming a “new breeding ground for terrorism” in the region.
The Ultra-Secular Regime
Since the collapse of the USSR and the end of a devastating civil war, President Rahmon has maintained power for over 32 years, winning elections without any real opposition and ensuring his family controls much of the national economy. His fundamental battle has been against fundamentalist Islam, a crusade that has molded Tajikistan into an ultra-secular regime.
Despite being an overwhelmingly Muslim country, religion is strictly regulated. The government has implemented radical measures to suppress religious symbolism, including forcing men to shave beards deemed linked to extremism and requiring women in public institutions, like hospitals, to swap the hijab for a traditional Tajic headscarf. Critics argue that this heavy-handed suppression of religious life, rather than ensuring stability, risks driving devout citizens toward the radical fringe.
The Shadow of ISIS
The connections between Tajikistan and global jihadist movements run deep. Beyond the recent Moscow attack, the documentary cites earlier instances, such as the 2018 murder of four foreign cyclists who were violently hit by a car and stabbed by five young Tajics who had pledged allegiance to ISIS.
Perhaps the most remarkable evidence of this ideological infiltration is the story of Gulmurod Kalimov. A highly decorated Lieutenant Colonel and former head of the Tajic special forces, Kalimov—who had been trained by both American and Russian forces—defected in 2015 to join the caliphate in Syria. He was later appointed Minister of War for ISIS, becoming one of the most wanted people in the world under the nickname ‘Al Tajiki’. Between 1,500 and 2,000 Tajiks are estimated to have fought for ISIS, confirming the country as a major supplier of men to the Islamic State.
Any hint of domestic political opposition is severely repressed, pushing dissidents into exile, primarily in Europe. One exiled opposition leader interviewed detailed the extreme pressure put on his family back home, including the imprisonment and brutal treatment of his father, illustrating the high price of dissent.
A Geopolitical and Economic Crossroads
Tajikistan’s geopolitical position is complex. Situated at the heart of Central Asia, bordered by China, Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, it is an important strategic ally for Moscow, hosting Russia’s largest military base abroad (Base 201). Furthermore, the unstable border with Afghanistan, now under Taliban control, adds to the security threat. The documentary shows rare footage from an open-air bazaar on the Afghan side, confirming that women from the Afghan side are not permitted to attend the market.
Economically, the country remains the poorest of the former Soviet republics, with an average monthly salary of no more than €100. The nation heavily relies on remittances from over one million Tajic migrant workers in Russia.
However, hope for development is tied to the colossal New Silk Road project, financed by neighboring China. This titanic effort aims to build a road hundreds of kilometers long to connect China with Europe, saving time on the route to Rotterdam. Chinese investments are increasingly shaping the country, funding new industrial parks producing goods from high-tech strawberries to perfumes, and constructing luxury hotels intended to attract tourists.
The Stark Economic Divide
The development ushered in by Chinese funding has done little to bridge the vast economic gap between the capital’s elite and the rest of the country.
The film dramatically contrasts the life of a family living in the remote Pamir Mountains—one of the world’s highest ranges—where nomadic ethnic Kirgiz live in much the same way as their ancestors, relying on yak herding and yak dung for fuel at an altitude of 4,200 meters. The village life is one of basic survival, with only a few hundred tourists visiting even in summer.
Meanwhile, in Dushanbe, the capital’s elite enjoy a completely different existence. Nighttime transforms Dushanbe into a blaze of multi-colored lights, with the “golden youth” frequenting fashionable nightclubs where a drink can cost more than €10—a massive sum in a country with such low average wages. This glittering luxury stands in stark contrast to the ramshackle buildings and lack of running water in the villages, illustrating a society deeply fractured by economic inequality under the omnipresent gaze of the regime.
As President Rahmon continues to tighten his grip on the country, the inherent risks multiply: a combination of political repression, economic desperation, and a strategic location bordering instability suggests that the ultra-secular regime may be unintentionally creating the very extremist threat it has devoted itself to destroying.
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