Tehran, December 24, 2025 – In a significant shift in its defense procurement strategy, Iran is actively negotiating with China to acquire Chengdu J-10C multirole fighter jets, a 4.5-generation aircraft equipped with advanced AESA radar and long-range PL-15 missiles. This move comes after prolonged delays in the delivery of Russian Su-35 fighters and follows Iran’s exposed air force weaknesses during the intense 12-day war with Israel and the United States in June 2025. 5 “LARGE” 6 “LARGE”
A Fleet in Crisis: Lessons from the June War
The brief but devastating conflict, often referred to as the “Twelve-Day War,” highlighted the obsolescence of Iran’s Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF). Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” achieved rapid air superiority, with F-35I stealth fighters and other advanced platforms striking deep into Iranian territory, targeting nuclear facilities, military bases, and air defenses. Iran’s aging inventory—primarily pre-1979 U.S.-made aircraft such as the F-14 Tomcat, F-4 Phantom, and F-5 Tiger—proved largely ineffective, with many units grounded or destroyed on the tarmac due to maintenance issues and parts shortages. 3 “LARGE” 4 “LARGE”
According to reports from the International Institute for Strategic Studies and various defense analyses, Iran’s pre-war fighter fleet numbered around 150 aircraft, but the majority were outdated and only partially operational. The war resulted in significant degradation of Iran’s capabilities, prompting an urgent push for modernization.
Pivot from Russia to China
Iran had long pinned its hopes on Russia for the Su-35, a 4++ generation fighter. A deal announced in 2023 promised deliveries starting that year, but Russia’s commitments in Ukraine led to repeated delays. By early 2025, reports indicated that Su-35s intended for Iran were redirected to allies like Algeria, leaving Tehran frustrated with Moscow’s reliability.
In response, Iranian officials, including Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, intensified talks with Beijing. High-level visits in mid-2025 focused on procuring the J-10C, seen as a cost-effective alternative (estimated at $40-50 million per unit compared to the more expensive Su-35). Negotiations reportedly center on 36 to 40 aircraft, with discussions also including AWACS systems and possibly air defense equipment. 0 “LARGE” 1 “LARGE” 2 “LARGE”
The J-10C, nicknamed the “Vigorous Dragon,” has gained attention for its performance in service with the Pakistan Air Force, including reported successes in regional engagements. For Iran, it offers a potential counter to Israeli air superiority, though analysts note it would not fully close the gap against fifth-generation stealth aircraft like the F-35.
Geopolitical Facilitators and Hurdles
A key enabler emerged in June 2025 when the U.S. permitted China to purchase Iranian oil without secondary sanctions, easing payment barriers that had previously stalled deals (Iran often proposes oil barter, while China prefers cash). This aligns with broader Iran-China strategic ties.
However, challenges remain. China has historically been cautious about large-scale advanced arms sales to Iran, citing risks of technology leakage, regional stability concerns, and relations with Gulf states and the West. Some experts express skepticism about a swift deal, pointing to Iran’s financial constraints under sanctions and Beijing’s priorities.
Broader Implications
If finalized, the acquisition would mark a notable expansion of Chinese military influence in the Middle East, following exports to Pakistan. It could alter regional dynamics, prompting concerns from Israel and Gulf allies about Iran’s renewed air capabilities.
As of late 2025, no deliveries have been confirmed, and negotiations continue amid ongoing tensions. Iran’s pursuit underscores a pragmatic realignment in its alliances, turning eastward as traditional partners falter.
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