The Sahel, a vast semi-arid belt stretching across Africa from Senegal in the west to parts of Sudan and Eritrea in the east, has emerged as one of the most volatile regions on the planet. Spanning countries such as Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Chad, Mauritania, and northern Nigeria, this transition zone between the Sahara Desert and the more humid savannas has long grappled with poverty, climate challenges, weak governance, and ethnic tensions. In recent years, however, these issues have converged with a dramatic surge in jihadist violence, prompting many to question whether the Sahel now qualifies as the most dangerous place on Earth.
Recent data from the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) — produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace — paints a stark picture. According to the 2025 report (covering 2024 data), the Sahel accounted for over half (51%) of all terrorism-related deaths worldwide. This marked the first time the region surpassed the rest of the globe combined in this category, with thousands of fatalities attributed primarily to groups like Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM, an al-Qaeda affiliate) and various Islamic State branches, including Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). Burkina Faso remained the single country most impacted by terrorism for the second year running, though deaths and attacks there declined somewhat from prior peaks. Five of the top ten countries most affected by terrorism globally are in the Sahel.
This shift represents a profound change in the geography of global terrorism. While the Middle East dominated headlines in the 2010s, deaths from terrorism have declined overall since their mid-decade peak. In contrast, the Sahel has seen a nearly tenfold increase in terrorism fatalities since 2019. The region now serves as the undisputed epicenter of jihadist activity, with insurgents exploiting governance vacuums — exacerbated by recent military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger — and the withdrawal of international forces, including French troops and UN missions. Violence has spread southward toward coastal West African states, raising fears of broader regional destabilization.
Yet “most dangerous” is a subjective label that depends on the criteria used. Terrorism-specific metrics, such as those in the GTI, position the Sahel at the forefront, with JNIM and affiliates responsible for some of the deadliest attacks and rapid territorial gains. Reports from organizations like the Council on Foreign Relations and the Africa Center for Strategic Studies describe the persistent and growing strength of these groups, leading to mass civilian displacement, school closures, and humanitarian crises.
Broader assessments of peace and conflict tell a more nuanced story. The Global Peace Index (GPI) 2025 ranks Russia as the least peaceful country (due to the ongoing war in Ukraine), followed by Ukraine, Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Yemen. Sahel nations like Mali, Burkina Faso, and others rank extremely poorly — often in the bottom tier — but do not always occupy the absolute lowest positions. These rankings incorporate factors beyond terrorism, such as interstate war, militarization, violent crime, and societal safety.
Other danger indicators further complicate the picture. Travel risk advisories often flag “extreme” threats in places like Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria, South Sudan, Somalia, and parts of Ukraine or Iraq. Urban violence driven by gangs, cartels, or general crime places cities in Mexico, Venezuela, South Africa, or Haiti among the world’s most perilous on homicide-based lists. In the Sahel, the primary threats stem from insurgency, intercommunal clashes, resource conflicts worsened by climate change, abductions, and indiscriminate attacks rather than widespread urban crime.
The Sahel’s crisis is multifaceted and worsening. Jihadist expansion, weak state control, and external influences — including the growing role of Russian actors following Western withdrawals — have created a breeding ground for instability. Civilian massacres, forced recruitment, and blockades on essential supplies compound the humanitarian toll, with millions displaced and access to food, water, health care, and education severely restricted.
In conclusion, the Sahel is not unequivocally the single most dangerous place on Earth when all forms of violence and risk are considered. Active war zones like Ukraine or Sudan, or chronic high-conflict areas elsewhere, often rival or exceed it in certain measures. However, in terms of the concentration and growth of terrorism-related deaths, jihadist territorial control, and the rapid deterioration of security, the Sahel stands out as the current global epicenter of terrorist violence. The situation remains highly fluid, with profound implications not only for the region but for West Africa and beyond.
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