Will Congress Lead in Assam? Current Trends Point to a BJP Retention in 2026 Assembly Polls
As Assam prepares for its Legislative Assembly elections on April 9, 2026, with vote counting scheduled for May 4, 2026, the political landscape remains dominated by the incumbent BJP-led NDA government under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. The 126-seat assembly, where the BJP and its allies currently hold power since 2016, is set for a high-stakes contest, but recent assessments suggest the ruling alliance is poised to secure a comfortable victory rather than cede ground to the Congress-led opposition.
Recent opinion polls, including the Matrize-IANS survey released in mid-March 2026, project a strong performance for the BJP+. The poll estimates the NDA alliance winning 96-98 seats with a vote share of around 43-44%. In contrast, the Congress-led alliance is projected to secure 26-28 seats with 39-40% vote share, while other parties and independents could pick up 2-8 seats with 18-20%. These figures indicate the BJP could surpass its 2021 tally and retain a clear majority (64 seats needed).
Other surveys, such as earlier tracker polls from Peoples Pulse, have similarly forecasted the NDA around 90 seats, with the BJP alone in the 69-74 range and Congress in the 25-29 bracket. Analysts describe the opposition’s path as an “uphill battle,” citing factors like organizational challenges, leadership defections to the BJP, and vote fragmentation—particularly among minority communities where splits between Congress and parties like AIUDF often benefit the ruling side.
The Congress has mounted an aggressive campaign in response. It has announced candidates in phases, releasing its first list of 42 names (including MP Gaurav Gogoi contesting from Jorhat for the first time in assembly polls) and a second list of 23, totaling 65 candidates so far, while reserving seats for allies like the Asom Jatiya Parishad (AJP), CPI(M), and others. The party has formed the Asom Sonmilito Morcha alliance to consolidate anti-BJP votes, focusing on issues such as anti-incumbency, corruption, welfare concerns, and community-specific demands.
Despite these efforts, Congress faces persistent hurdles. Internal weaknesses, a history of defections, and the BJP’s robust organizational network—bolstered by welfare schemes, infrastructure projects, and incumbency advantages under Sarma—have kept the opposition trailing. Sarma, who has emphasized governance, development, and identity-related issues, continues to project confidence in securing a third term.
While elections can produce unexpected shifts—such as better consolidation of opposition votes or turnout surprises—the current indicators, based on mid-March 2026 polls and analyses, show the BJP holding a decisive edge. Congress is unlikely to take the lead or form the next government unless significant late swings occur.
The situation will evolve with campaigning, final alliances, and voter turnout, but as of now, the BJP appears firmly positioned to continue its dominance in Assam.
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