Myanmar’s Military Is Not Winning the Civil War: A Stalemate Marked by Territorial Losses and Grinding Attrition
Five years after the 2021 military coup that ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government, Myanmar remains locked in a brutal civil war. Despite recent tactical gains, the junta—known as the Tatmadaw or State Administration Council (SAC)—is far from victory. The conflict has evolved into a protracted stalemate, with the military ceding significant territory while clinging to major population centers through airpower and external support.
Limited Territorial Control
Independent assessments paint a stark picture of the junta’s reach. As of early 2026, the military government controls only about 21% of Myanmar’s territory. Rebel forces, including ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) aligned with the parallel National Unity Government (NUG), hold roughly 42%, with the remainder contested.
The Tatmadaw maintains dominance in urban strongholds and key economic hubs where most of the population resides. However, its stable control has shrunk to between 72 and 220 of the country’s 330 townships. Resistance groups have seized around 96 towns, including 15 at the district level or higher, and established interim administrations in several regions.
Ethnic armed groups have made particularly strong advances in border areas, such as Rakhine State (where the Arakan Army has captured strategic positions), Shan, Kayah, Karen, Sagaing, and Chin states. These gains have disrupted junta supply lines and border trade.
Recent Shifts on the Battlefield
The war’s momentum has fluctuated. In 2023–2024, coordinated resistance offensives, notably Operation 1027 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, inflicted heavy losses on the junta, capturing outposts and territory. By late 2025, the military mounted a comeback, recapturing towns, highways, and bases in northern Shan and other regions. Factors included increased Chinese pressure on some ethnic groups, arms support from Russia and China, a surge in airstrikes and drone attacks (over 3,300 incidents in 2025–2026), and forced conscription of tens of thousands of new recruits.
In April 2026, junta leader Min Aung Hlaing was sworn in as president following tightly controlled, multi-phase elections widely criticized as fraudulent and non-inclusive. The process aimed to legitimize military rule but did little to quell fighting or reduce violence.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Junta advantages: Superior airpower has become its primary tool, enabling indiscriminate strikes on resistance-held areas that have killed thousands of civilians and destroyed infrastructure. The military also retains control of cities and benefits from foreign backing.
Persistent vulnerabilities: Manpower shortages, low morale, and overextension plague the Tatmadaw. It has lost communication with some garrisons and struggles to govern beyond its strongholds.
Resistance side: Ethnic armies and PDFs have shown resilience and coordination in places, recently forming alliances like the Steering Council for the Emergence of a Federal Democratic Union. Challenges include fragmentation, supply constraints, and difficulty holding gains against aerial bombardment.
Analysts across sources describe the current phase as a stalemate. Neither side can deliver a knockout blow: the junta cannot reconquer lost territories fully, while rebels have yet to threaten the Bamar heartland decisively.
Devastating Human and Economic Toll
The war has displaced over 3–5 million people, caused tens of thousands of deaths, and triggered acute food insecurity and economic collapse. Airstrikes alone have claimed more than 3,800 civilian lives. Indiscriminate tactics have deepened hatred toward the junta and fueled recruitment into resistance ranks.
Outlook for 2026 and Beyond
Barring a major internal coup within the military or a sharp shift in Chinese policy, the conflict is likely to grind on. Some observers see long-term momentum favoring anti-junta forces if they improve unity and governance in controlled areas. Others highlight the Tatmadaw’s staying power, backed by authoritarian allies and its ability to sustain urban control.
Myanmar’s civil war offers no easy resolution. The junta survives but does not prevail, while resistance movements endure but have not yet toppled the regime. For millions of civilians caught in the crossfire, the suffering continues unabated in one of the world’s most underreported major conflicts.
About The Author
