As the 2025/26 Premier League season enters its final stages in mid-May 2026, the title race between Arsenal and Manchester City remains mathematically alive but heavily favours Mikel Arteta’s side. Arsenal hold a commanding position, yet Pep Guardiola’s champions have a history of late surges that keeps the door slightly ajar.
Current Standings Snapshot
- Arsenal: 79 points from 36 games (Goal difference +42)
- Manchester City: 74 points from 35 games (Goal difference +40)
Arsenal lead by five points with two matches remaining, while City have three games in hand. The maximum totals possible are:
- Arsenal: 85 points
- Manchester City: 83 points
This gap means Arsenal are in control of their destiny. If they secure victories in both remaining fixtures, the title is theirs irrespective of City’s results.
Remaining Fixtures: Arsenal’s Easier Path
Arsenal’s run-in is notably favourable:
- Monday, May 18: vs Burnley (Home) – Burnley are already relegated and sit at the bottom of the table, making this a strong opportunity for three points at the Emirates.
- Sunday, May 24: at Crystal Palace (Away) – Palace sit mid-table with little to play for, though they could pose a threat if distracted by other commitments.
Manchester City’s Tougher Assignment
City face a more challenging schedule amid potential fixture congestion:
- Midweek (May 13): vs Crystal Palace (Home)
- Tuesday, May 19: at Bournemouth (Away) – Bournemouth are in solid form and notoriously difficult to break down away from home.
- Final day (May 24): vs Aston Villa (Home) – Villa are pushing for European qualification and will be highly motivated.
What City Must Do to Win the Title
For Manchester City to overtake Arsenal, several things must align perfectly:
- City must win all three remaining matches to reach 83 points.
- Arsenal must drop at least three points across their two games (for example, one win and one draw, or two draws).
- If the teams finish level on points, goal difference (currently near-identical) or goals scored would become the decider.
Even in the most optimistic scenario for City, Arsenal would need to slip up – something they have avoided consistently in recent weeks. Historical precedent gives City hope: Guardiola’s teams have produced remarkable winning runs at the business end of seasons. However, Arsenal’s current momentum, squad depth, and simpler fixtures make them clear favourites to end their long wait for a Premier League title since 2004.
The Bigger Picture
The race has been thrilling, with both teams delivering high-quality football throughout the campaign. Arsenal have shown greater consistency this season, while City’s experience in title chases remains their greatest asset. Burnley’s relegation and the mid-table status of several opponents add an extra layer of predictability – or potential upset – to the final matches.
Bottom line: Manchester City can still catch Arsenal, but it requires near-perfection from them and vulnerability from their rivals. Arsenal are firmly in the driving seat and would be massive favourites to clinch the trophy. The next fortnight promises high drama as the 2025/26 Premier League champion is decided.
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