The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP, currently enjoys a comfortable simple majority in the 18th Lok Sabha with approximately 292-293 seats out of 543. However, achieving a two-thirds majority — essential for major constitutional amendments — requires around 360-363 seats. This higher threshold became a focal point after the government’s Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill, 2026, related to women’s reservation, delimitation, and expanding Lok Sabha seats to nearly 850, was defeated in April 2026 (298 votes in favour against the required ~352).
Faced with this setback, the NDA has adopted a multi-pronged strategy centred on alliance expansion, targeted defections, state-level consolidation, and smart parliamentary management to bridge the gap well before the next general elections.
1. Alliance Building and Strategic Defections
A key immediate boost for the NDA is emerging from internal divisions within the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal. Reports suggest that around 20 TMC MPs, led by prominent figures like Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar, have formed a breakaway group. Following meetings with senior BJP leaders such as Bhupendra Yadav, this faction is extending support to the NDA. This development could significantly reduce the shortfall needed for a two-thirds majority.
The NDA is also actively reaching out to smaller parties, independents, and disgruntled elements from the INDIA bloc. Efforts include strengthening ties with regional players in states like Tamil Nadu, where alliances with parties such as PMK are being cultivated ahead of assembly polls. This mirrors the NDA’s past success through mergers and switches, allowing it to steadily increase its numbers without a full election.
2. State Elections as a Launchpad
Control over more states provides the NDA with crucial leverage. By 2026, the alliance governs around 22 states — a notable rise from earlier years — including recent gains in Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, parts of West Bengal, and the Northeast. These victories not only deliver more MLAs for Rajya Sabha elections but also enhance bargaining power and help shape national narratives favourable to future delimitation exercises.
In the Rajya Sabha, the NDA has similarly strengthened its position through defections and biennial polls, inching closer to its own two-thirds target. This upper house momentum reinforces confidence in handling constitutional matters.
3. Long-Term Structural Reforms via Delimitation
A central long-term objective remains the passage of delimitation based on a fresh census. This would redraw constituencies — potentially benefiting more populous, NDA-leaning states — and increase the total number of Lok Sabha seats. The NDA aims to build broader consensus or wait for more favourable numbers post additional state wins, using its existing simple majority to push ordinary legislation in the interim.
4. Effective Parliamentary Management
The NDA leadership conducts regular strategy meetings to assess ally and potential cross-party support, especially after key votes. By focusing on popular issues such as women’s reservation, development, and national security, the alliance seeks issue-based backing from opposition MPs without requiring formal mergers. Coordination with core allies like TDP and JD(U), along with nominated members and independents, remains tight.
Challenges Ahead
Despite these efforts, the INDIA bloc, with roughly 250 seats, continues to present a united front on major constitutional amendments, as demonstrated by the April defeat. Regional allies have their own demands, requiring ongoing negotiation. Full realisation of a two-thirds majority may still depend on sustained defections, successful bypolls, or further shifts in political alignments.
The NDA’s approach cleverly combines short-term tactical gains — particularly the unfolding TMC developments — with sustained coalition-building and electoral dominance at the state level. Crossing the 360-seat threshold would open the door to transformative reforms like delimitation and full implementation of women’s reservation, potentially reshaping India’s political architecture for decades.
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